Sunday, March 16, 2008

Interlude: Stick a Fork in It, It's Done


The "it" being the Democratic party in the 2008 election. This will be short, not sweet.


My last post was the beginning of an examination of the proposal that the establishment of a "public orthodoxy" would be a good thing. I opposed it.


That said, it must be admitted that we already have a public orthodoxy of sorts in effect. This unformulated, but universally recognized, public orthodoxy regularly raises its ugly head above the surface of the mud in which it wiggles during political campaigns. Its bite is lethal, and Barack Obama has been bitten--big time.


Obama does not survive this Rev. Jeremiah Wright flap. The reason for this is that he has, at least to the perception of any reasonable person--lied about it. That is a violation of the public orthodoxy, which states that the cover-up is worse than the crime. Obama's assertion that he is only now hearing Wright's anti-White rhetoric for the first time just doesn't pass the sniff test. I don't believe him when he says that, and I've been supporting him ever since the Clintons started using his race against him.


The implication of this is that the Democratic party is now moribund. Unless Hillary Clinton can catch Obama in the both the delegate count and the popular vote prior to the convention, the Democrats, if they want to win the general election, will have to dump Obama -- ostensibly the People's Choice -- through the actions of the Super Delegates. But it won't work. McCain will win either way; either because Obama has discredited himself by lying about what he knew about Wright and when he knew it, or because the Democratic party has split itself right down the middle and Democratic voters stay home on election day.


It's over. Get used to the idea of another inarticulate, uninformed, jingoistic, war-mongering, Republican sitting in the Oval Office. Gear up for the war with Iran. And don't be trying to unload your house any time in the near future.

UPDATE: Tuesday, 3/18/08
Barack Obama gave a major speech on race today, in an attempt to rectify the situation on the basis of which I pronounced the eulogy for his campaign above. It was a great speech; so say at least 90% of the pundits and talking heads on cable TV. It is being praised by both the left and the right. In my opinion, its greatness resides primarily in its uniqueness. Who else--ever--in American politics could have given it? No-body. Case closed. It was a speech we haven't heard before. I think that he probably recouped his losses among voters on the left, like myself, who may have been prepared either to switch (too late!) to Hillary, or just sit it out in despair. But voters like me are not going to be the issue in the national election, should Obama win the nomination, as it seems all but certain that he will. The voter Obama most needs to win over is the same voter who will have been most put off by the down-home, nitty-gritty, tell-it-like-it-is, filled-with-the-Spirit, over-the-top, rhetoric of the Rev. Wright. Did his speech today do anything at all to mollify the guy who lives in that vast Albania West that lies between Philadelphia and Pittsburgh? I'm talkin' about the guy who believes Budweiser to be good beer. The guy who thinks a man is gay if he smokes anything but Marlboros. I mean the dude who thinks pro wrestling is for real; the guy who is intellectually challenged by watching souped-up stock cars go in circles hour-on-end. I don't think so.
It is said that black people know all about white people. After all, they've been washing our sheets for a few hundred years. We have no secrets from them. But most white people know almost nothing about black people that they haven't learned from the media. Oh, they know that black guy at work. The thing is, they think that the white guy in the next cubicle to their right is a fool because he's stupid. But they think the fool in the next cubicle to their left is stupid because he's black. That's the truth of it.
Obama probably retrieved the intelligensia. Nobody since Mary Lou Retten has nailed a dismount like Obama nailed his today. But Joe Sixpack ain't a gymnastics fan.

20 comments:

An Interested Party said...

It's looking more and more obvious that the only way that the Democrat, whomever that will be, will win the presidency in the fall will be if he/she plays just as nasty and just as dirty as the Republicans, all this talk of "hope" and "change" sounds lovely, but how can that possibly compete with the hordes of political hitmen that will be unleashed? So far, Obama hasn't shown much of a desire to be down and dirty, now, Hillary, on the other hand...

Rodak said...

AIP--
True. But, unfortunately, what I'm predicting will bring Obama and the Dems down is pretty much of his own making. In fact, Hillary's surrogates were on the Sunday morning talk shows, trying to quell the controversy over the Rev. They realize that this thing will probably destroy the party and elect McCain, if it can't be quashed.

William R. Barker said...

Rob,

If Hillary can't be the 2008 Dem nominee and either isn't offered or is offered but refuses the opportunity to be Obama's running mate, then Hillary will be McCain's biggest supporter. (Not publicly of course... but in reality.)

(*SHRUG*)

BILL

Rodak said...

Bill--
I think that she can be the candidate. I think that it can happen at the convention. But I don't think she can win the national election under those circumstances. Obama can be forced out by the party, if the polls show that he can't win. He's young, they'll make him promises for the future. As I said, I see it as a lose-lose situation at this point. But who knows? It's hard to judge the electorate this time around--in both parties.

An Interested Party said...

"...then Hillary will be McCain's biggest supporter."

Spoken by a charter-member and true sufferer of Clinton Derangement Syndrome...

Rodak said...

Yes, I have to say, Bill, that if Hillary loses the nomination, she will still be a DEMOCRATIC senator from New York. And still young enough to run again in four years. She will not fuck herself by supporting McCain, in any way.

Anonymous said...

Some more tonic for ya, Rodak ol' pal ...

http://antiwar.com/justin/?articleid=12532


--- MS

An Interested Party said...

At the risk of beating a dead limey, Rob, would you care to explain how your good friend meant what he wrote here in a curmudgeonly, benign way? To explain away groups like the Klan or Stormfront as not hateful, but rather, "realistic"? One of the great joys of watching the Obama phenomenon is seeing how it is driving so many conservatives batshit insane (particularly Derbyshire), much like what Reagan did to so many liberals back in the day...talk about history repeating...

Rodak said...

AIP--
Isn't Derb essentially just saying the same thing that I said, here?:

The thing is, they think that the white guy in the next cubicle to their right is a fool because he's stupid. But they think the fool in the next cubicle to their left is stupid because he's black. That's the truth of it.

Rodak said...

Some more tonic for ya, Rodak ol' pal ...

Shame, Madscribe! Don't present me with the truth! I'm an American!

William R. Barker said...

re: 3/17/08 8:22 PM

Rob. You're crazy! (*GRIN*) Obviously I didn't mean support as in OFFICIAL PUBLIC SUPPORT. I meant support as in having her machine leak damaging info against Obama from behind the scenes - supporting Obama's DEFEAT behind the scenes.

A McCain win against Obama sets HRC up for Dem Presidential Nomination Campaign #2 for the 2012 Election. An Obama win... means either a Republican takeover in 2012 defeating an Obama re-election bid or an Obama re-election. In other words... an Obama win in 2008 would leave HRC out of contention for her own presidential run until 2012 or even 2016. Too late. (*SHRUG*)

Not that anything is ever solved by a vote (*GRIN*) (*PUN OPENING INTENDED*) but feel free to post the following her on your blog or other blogs:

QUESTION: If Obama wins the Democratic presidential nomination this year, will Hillary be hoping for an Obama victory in the general election or a McCain victory?

BILL

Rodak said...

I meant support as in having her machine leak damaging info against Obama from behind the scenes - supporting Obama's DEFEAT behind the scenes.

No. She won't do that because it would be impossible to keep it secret within the party and it would destroy her.

She might silently and passively root for a McCain victory over Obama. But she will do nothing proactive to make it happen.

An Interested Party said...

Hmm...is Derb also essentially just saying any of the same things you said with this? By the way, Bill's obsession with Hillary is worse than any case of Bush Derangement Syndrome I've ever seen...

Rodak said...

AIP--
I'd of thunk you'd be quite pleased with Derb's opinion of Barack. After all--he disagrees with Bill. :-)

An Interested Party said...

Indeed I would be pleased with Derb's comment, if I agreed with his ideas that Obama did his grandmother dirty simply to score political points or that Obama is secretly a communist or some such claptrap...by the way, just because I disagree with Bill quite frequently doesn't mean he's ALWAYS wrong...Rob, do I strike you as that much of an idealogue? :-p

Rodak said...

The enemy of your enemy is NOT your friend? ;-(

An Interested Party said...

Such Manichaean world views may work for others, but not for me... ;-)

Rodak said...

AIP--
Shades of gray, all the way!

An Interested Party said...

So...you're a poet and don't know it?

Rodak said...

Hey, I have poems linked to this blog...